The Afghanistan War, or the War on Terror that started 20 years ago, was an immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in the US. It followed US military intervention in Afghanistan to dismantle the Taliban-led government that had helped shelter Al Qaeda operatives involved in the terror strike in New York and helped facilitate their plans. Taliban, the terrorist group that had imposed a hardline version of Islam and ruled the country for nearly five years (1996-2001), fled and followed a guerrilla-style war campaign on the US and NATO forces from its mountainous hideouts in Helmand and Kandahar. Several US Presidents, from Bush to Obama to Trump and finally Biden, continued the offensive on the Taliban, albeit in different ways.
India initially welcomed America's policy reversal with respect to South-East Asia. In the 1980s, the US had propped the Mujahideen up against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. After its victory against the Soviets, the same Mujahideen later turned on the US and created Al Qaeda, Taliban, and other terrorist groups in the region. The Mujahideen had active links with terror groups in Pakistan and provided an ideal breeding ground to train terrorists and aid Pakistan's nefarious designs for India. Thus, the lack of American support for these groups was a welcome relief for New Delhi. However, while Bush pushed for military action after the 9/11 attacks, it allied with Pakistan against Al Qaeda. Pakistan received American aid and support, which it promptly utilized to spawn unrest in India.
After Bush, Obama too continued to support the Afghanistan war. However, policymakers in Washington DC exercised too much caution while dealing with Afghanistan. Under the Bush administration, additional troop deployment in the country was always met with skepticism. As a result, the US never really enjoyed the same success in Afghanistan as it did in Iraq, a country with a sizable US military presence. In 2008, Obama changed course and deployed several military personnel to aid the Afghanistan effort. Instead of being a side actor, a role that it had previously enjoyed, Pakistan became a frontline for the US offensive. And the ties between the country spiraled quickly, culminating with a US military offensive to kill Osama bin Laden, who for all these years was hiding in Pakistan, less than 5 miles away from Pakistan Army barracks. The mistrust continued to grow, but the US still bafflingly believed that it could nudge Pakistan away from being a supporter of terrorism. In hindsight, as much as foresight, it was an exercise in utter futility. Rebuffed for his efforts, Obama later undercut his efforts and chose to withdraw from Afghanistan.
In the next US election cycle, Donald Trump emerged victorious and was particularly famous for his disdain for the Afghanistan War and promised withdrawal as a part of his poll promise. Better heads prevailed initially, and in the wake of the ISIS threat, Trump re-pledged his support for the Afghanistan War. However, in 2018 following the dismissal of his NSA, Trump once again changed course, led hasty negotiations with the Taliban in Doha, and signed a deal with them to withdraw by May 2021. The new US president Joe Biden too followed through on this ill-conceived deal and finally withdrew from Afghanistan in August.
The immediate aftermath of this withdrawal shook the world. Utter chaos descended upon the streets as crowds flocked to airports to escape the Taliban onslaught. Scenes of helicopters airlifting US embassy staff to safety brought back memories of the Vietnam War. President Ashraf Ghani escaped, gunshots rang out in neighborhoods, and despite the Taliban's assurance of peaceful transition of power, blood still bled on the streets. Women's rights are curtailed, and the hardline version of Islam is in force once again. Decades of progress made in the country vanished into thin air.
In hindsight, it is clear that the indecisiveness of US policy led to the current crisis, the one where its enemy sits comfortably in Kabul. Twenty years later, the world is even more fractured and vulnerable. The policymakers of the US are in uproar, still trying to understand where it all went wrong. Congressional hearings on the circumstances and manner of US withdrawal are exposing the harsh truths. The links between Pakistan's ISI and the leadership of the Taliban are common knowledge. The fact that for two decades, the US funded its own enemy is apparent now. Frustration and anger grow day by day as the Taliban rule starts taking its shape, eroding human rights one day at a time.
In the end, it will be geopolitics that will decide the future of Afghanistan. The War on Terror began because the terrorists attacked a superpower on its own soil. Twenty years later, the world has changed. The US no longer enjoys the clout it enjoyed two decades ago, and a rising (and belligerent) China seeks to assert its dominance, at least in Asia. It is no coincidence that the Taliban considers China as its greatest ally, for China promises support, covert as may be, and in return seeks to expand its influence further across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and UAE maintain a studied silence, as Turkey, Pakistan, and Qatar, the other axis of the Islamic world, try to drum up support for the new regime.
For India, this is a critical time. The Taliban have made a few overtures to India, including a few behind-the-scenes meetings and public announcements and statements to assuage the Indian concerns. The government must approach the situation proactively. It is, after all, the very same Taliban that hijacked the IC-814 flight and lent its support to Pakistani terrorists. The Haqqani Network, which has attacked Indian interest in Afghanistan at various points in time, is a part of the interim Taliban government. The son of the plotter of the IC-814 hijacking is the new defense minister. But at some point, India will have to engage with the new regime in Afghanistan, whether to maintain peace or secure its interests in Kashmir and elsewhere. Before making that decision, the government must weigh in carefully and ensure that Afghanistan's fallout does not spread far beyond its borders.